Market moves defy easy explanation

In her “Net Worth” column today, Kathleen Pender explores some of the possible explanations for the recent slide in the markets.  Our take, as always, is that it’s essentially impossible to identify the right explanation (or even mix of explanations) for any market activity.  The main drivers can, at best, be identified only in hindsight, not concurrently.  A point that’s often lost in these discussions is that the markets are foward-looking, they’re “leading indicators.”  So, by definition, it’s futile to seek explanations in the current round of economic statistics.  The markets are distilling expectations for things that are out on the horizon, things that won’t show up in the numbers for many months to come.  Here was Dave’s contribution to Kathleen’s column: